0 saved
10K views
Imagine playing a game of chess where your opponent places their queen directly in the kill zone of your pawn. You'd take it, right? If so, tha ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Quae quidem sapientes sequuntur duce natura tamquam videntes; Facit igitur Lucius noster prudenter, qui audire de summo bono potissimum velit; Utinam quidem dicerent alium alio beatiorem! Iam ruinas videres. Ita enim vivunt quidam, ut eorum vita refellatur oratio. Deinde disputat, quod cuiusque generis animantium statui deceat extremum. Duo Reges: constructio interrete.
Invidiosum nomen est, infame, suspectum. Bestiarum vero nullum iudicium puto. Nondum autem explanatum satis, erat, quid maxime natura vellet. Res enim se praeclare habebat, et quidem in utraque parte. Ut enim consuetudo loquitur, id solum dicitur honestum, quod est populari fama gloriosum. Verum hoc idem saepe faciamus.
Quae quo sunt excelsiores, eo dant clariora indicia naturae. Quid igitur dubitamus in tota eius natura quaerere quid sit effectum? Sin tantum modo ad indicia veteris memoriae cognoscenda, curiosorum. Vos autem cum perspicuis dubia debeatis illustrare, dubiis perspicua conamini tollere. Qui enim voluptatem ipsam contemnunt, iis licet dicere se acupenserem maenae non anteponere. Tamen a proposito, inquam, aberramus. Sed haec quidem liberius ab eo dicuntur et saepius. Non enim, si omnia non sequebatur, idcirco non erat ortus illinc.
- Stop and ask ‘and what would happen next?’
Rather than commit to an initial appealing decisi ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Solum praeterea formosum, solum liberum, solum civem, stultost; Tecum optime, deinde etiam cum mediocri amico. Nam cum in Graeco sermone haec ipsa quondam rerum nomina novarum * * non videbantur, quae nunc consuetudo diuturna trivit; Itaque hic ipse iam pridem est reiectus; Et homini, qui ceteris animantibus plurimum praestat, praecipue a natura nihil datum esse dicemus? Summum a vobis bonum voluptas dicitur. Vitae autem degendae ratio maxime quidem illis placuit quieta. Duo Reges: constructio interrete.
Ipse Epicurus fortasse redderet, ut Sextus Peducaeus, Sex. Sed virtutem ipsam inchoavit, nihil amplius. Itaque et manendi in vita et migrandi ratio omnis iis rebus, quas supra dixi, metienda. Ita credo. Ita graviter et severe voluptatem secrevit a bono. Si enim non fuit eorum iudicii, nihilo magis hoc non addito illud est iudicatum-. Sit hoc ultimum bonorum, quod nunc a me defenditur; Quodsi ipsam honestatem undique pertectam atque absolutam. Quamquam in hac divisione rem ipsam prorsus probo, elegantiam desidero. Si quicquam extra virtutem habeatur in bonis.
Summae mihi videtur inscitiae. Haec quo modo conveniant, non sane intellego. Quid sequatur, quid repugnet, vident. Ita est quoddam commune officium sapientis et insipientis, ex quo efficitur versari in iis, quae media dicamus.
Second-Order Thinking is effortful and can ultimately be wildly unreliable. Each step away from the initial direct causal relationship — between a decision and the immediate implication — creates new factors to consider, other players and agents, and general complexity. It is difficult to predict or consider all of these factors in any meaningful way.
Automation and the fourth industrial revolution.
One of the contradictions of capitalism that is still being played out in real time around us, is the impact of automation. There is still some debate about the impact of automation on jobs. While there is general agreement that we are losing many jobs, it’s unclear how many new jobs are being created through a ‘robot driven economy’.
A first order thinking approach to automation would say ‘we can save on labour costs and be more efficient by automating’. The second order and beyond thinking might raise questions about less people in the workforce and the implications on reducing consumer power — thus costing those businesses.
Again, this is still being played out with some debate about actual implications (second order thinking is often harder to predict), but has led to growing calls for things such as a universal basic income.
Asimov and the Foundation series.
I couldn’t resist putting this geeky reference in here. Science fiction writer Asimov coined the concept of psychohistory in the Foundation series. This is the (fictional) combination of history, sociology and maths to make predictions about large groups of people. The idea was that it was hard to predict the behaviour of individuals, but the behaviour of groups of people and civilisations was highly predictable through what could be seen as a type of second order thinking.
Chess.
Chess and other strategy games capture this well. It’s often tempting to take a piece in chess, when in reality it is a play by your opponent to draw you into a trap. The immediate gain of taking a piece leads to long term consequences of weakening your position and leading you to lose the game.
Second-Order Thinking is a simple and powerful mental model to prevent reactive decisions and consider long term implications.
Use the following examples of connected and complementary models to weave Second-Order Thinking into your broader latticework of mental models. Alternatively, discover your own connections by exploring the category list above.
Connected models:
- Fast and slow thinking: first-order thinking sits within fast thinking.
- The domino effect: using second order thinking to gain momentum.
- Opportunity cost: considering the cost of the next best option.
- Compounding: how an initial decision can have a compounded effect.
- Butterfly effect: how small decisions can make large impacts over time.
- 5 whys and fishbone diagram: to dig deeper beyond initial causes.
Complementary models:
- Feedback loops: generating regular feedback points to inform the accuracy of second order thinking.
- Agile methodology: providing an iterative process to test and learn from.
- Probability thinking: to consider the likelihood of various potential outcomes.
- High velocity decisions: particularly considering whether something is reversible.
- First principles and ockham's razor: to cut down the assumptions built up over second order thinking.
- 5 whys: to consider a retrospective view of cause in contrast to the future-focused nature of second order thinking.
The Second-Order Thinking mental model has been developed by Howard Marks, the co-chairman of Oaktree investments, who presented it as second-level thinking in his book The Most Important Thing. As he explained: “First-level thinkers look for simple formulas and easy answers. Second-level thinkers know that success in investing is the antithesis of simple.”
My Notes
-
1367 days ago arun , CoFounder ModelThinkers & keynote speakerI love this. I'm trying to embed the actionable takeaway of asking 'and what would happen next' for any significant decisions.
Oops, That’s Members’ Only!
Fortunately, it only costs US$5/month to Join ModelThinkers and access everything so that you can rapidly discover, learn, and apply the world’s most powerful ideas.
ModelThinkers membership at a glance:
“Yeah, we hate pop ups too. But we wanted to let you know that, with ModelThinkers, we’re making it easier for you to adapt, innovate and create value. We hope you’ll join us and the growing community of ModelThinkers today.”
You Might Also Like:
- Actionable summaries of the world's most powerful ideas.
Subscribe now and download this practical guide to transform your thinking, plus recieve one short, powerful and actionable idea in your inbox each month.