0 saved
11.3K views
Just in case you were becoming too accustomed to the anxiety of living in a complex world, use this model to appreciate it's real volatility.&n ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Piso, familiaris noster, et alia multa et hoc loco Stoicos irridebat: Quid enim? Id et fieri posse et saepe esse factum et ad voluptates percipiendas maxime pertinere. Primum cur ista res digna odio est, nisi quod est turpis? Ergo et avarus erit, sed finite, et adulter, verum habebit modum, et luxuriosus eodem modo. Hoc etsi multimodis reprehendi potest, tamen accipio, quod dant. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Quia nec honesto quic quam honestius nec turpi turpius. Nonne videmus quanta perturbatio rerum omnium consequatur, quanta confusio? Summum ením bonum exposuit vacuitatem doloris; Claudii libidini, qui tum erat summo ne imperio, dederetur.
Nos paucis ad haec additis finem faciamus aliquando; Num igitur eum postea censes anxio animo aut sollicito fuisse? Unum nescio, quo modo possit, si luxuriosus sit, finitas cupiditates habere. Multa sunt dicta ab antiquis de contemnendis ac despiciendis rebus humanis; Ne amores quidem sanctos a sapiente alienos esse arbitrantur. Sedulo, inquam, faciam. In contemplatione et cognitione posita rerum, quae quia deorum erat vitae simillima, sapiente visa est dignissima. Hoc dictum in una re latissime patet, ut in omnibus factis re, non teste moveamur. Nam si propter voluptatem, quae est ista laus, quae possit e macello peti?
Ne in odium veniam, si amicum destitero tueri. Tu vero, inquam, ducas licet, si sequetur; Ait enim se, si uratur, Quam hoc suave! dicturum. In qua quid est boni praeter summam voluptatem, et eam sempiternam? In his igitur partibus duabus nihil erat, quod Zeno commutare gestiret. Si enim, ut mihi quidem videtur, non explet bona naturae voluptas, iure praetermissa est; Sic vester sapiens magno aliquo emolumento commotus cicuta, si opus erit, dimicabit.
- Embrace unpredictability and ambiguity
The butterfly effect is another reminder that, even within system ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Age, inquies, ista parva sunt. Hanc ergo intuens debet institutum illud quasi signum absolvere. Nunc omni virtuti vitium contrario nomine opponitur. Si quicquam extra virtutem habeatur in bonis. Ab his oratores, ab his imperatores ac rerum publicarum principes extiterunt. Non potes, nisi retexueris illa.
Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Cur iustitia laudatur? Perturbationes autem nulla naturae vi commoventur, omniaque ea sunt opiniones ac iudicia levitatis. Quid enim me prohiberet Epicureum esse, si probarem, quae ille diceret? Ergo id est convenienter naturae vivere, a natura discedere. Hic nihil fuit, quod quaereremus. Sed emolumenta communia esse dicuntur, recte autem facta et peccata non habentur communia. Quamquam id quidem, infinitum est in hac urbe; Quarum ambarum rerum cum medicinam pollicetur, luxuriae licentiam pollicetur. Sed finge non solum callidum eum, qui aliquid improbe faciat, verum etiam praepotentem, ut M.
Quarum ambarum rerum cum medicinam pollicetur, luxuriae licentiam pollicetur. Ut proverbia non nulla veriora sint quam vestra dogmata. Et quidem, inquit, vehementer errat; Sit, inquam, tam facilis, quam vultis, comparatio voluptatis, quid de dolore dicemus? Nam quibus rebus efficiuntur voluptates, eae non sunt in potestate sapientis. Etenim semper illud extra est, quod arte comprehenditur. Bona autem corporis huic sunt, quod posterius posui, similiora. Ab hoc autem quaedam non melius quam veteres, quaedam omnino relicta.
The Butterfly Effect tends to be misunderstood in popular culture. The idea of a butterfly flapping its wings and causing a typhoon is fascinating but has been interpreted as a linear explanation behind major events, rather than the intended emphasis towards complex and unpredictable patterns.
It should also not be interpreted as arguing that minor changes always have major impacts. Sometimes a butterfly will flap its wings and there will be no perceivable impact on a complex system. Sensitivity is in itself unpredictable.
Thus, one criticism of the Butterfly Effect might be the ‘so what?’ If we embrace the unpredictability that it argues, what can we do with that, how do we plan, how do we trust any other model, theory or prediction? However, a more balanced view would see it as a grounding warning.
A Butterfly Effect at Twitter
Twitter founder and CEO Jack Dorsey has discussed the impact of early decisions on Twitter. In a podcast interview, Dorsey explained he would have hired “a game theorist to just really understand the ramifications of tiny decisions that we make, such as what happens with retweet versus retweet with comment and what happens when you put a count next to a like button?”
He attributes that early decision and it’s implicit rewarding of liked and shared content over other metrics such as diversity, accuracy or relevance, with the ‘clickbait’ and sensationalist culture found in some parts of Twitter.
His plan for the future embraces this unpredictability — advocating a considered and iterative approach that embraces the scientific method to continually improve the product and experience.
The butterfly effect points to uncertainty and unpredictable complex systems.
Use the following examples of connected and complementary models to weave butterfly effect and chaos theory into your broader latticework of mental models. Alternatively, discover your own connections by exploring the category list above.
Connected models:
- The ripple effect, avalanche effect and domino effect: all similar mental models pointing to the exponential impact of small factors, though they don’t emphasise the unpredictable and nonlinear nature of chaos in the same way.
- The map is not the territory: another reminder that our simplified understanding of reality are in fact not reality.
- Black swan events: linked to major events taking us by surprise and how we react and want to explain them afterwards.
- Catalyst: similar mental model with a minor element promoting change at a large scale.
- Compounding: speaks to the exponential impact of a small starting point.
Complementary models:
- Diversification: in an unpredictable world best be prepared for, well, unpredictability.
- Leverage: not to be mistaken with the butterfly effect, leverage works with more controlled and predictable elements to create an amplified impact.
- 4Ps of marketing: aim to apply small improvements to these factors to test long term impact.
- Scientific method: use this method to continually test and update understanding in a complex world.
- Occam’s razor: sometimes it wasn’t the butterfly flapping, sometimes it was just a more direct and obvious causal relationship.
The Butterfly Effect concept was coined by American mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz who imagined the metaphor of a tornado being determined by perturbations as minor as the flapping of the wings of a butterfly weeks earlier.
The idea of small actions having large effects had been described before by many mathematicians and philosophers, with the most famous probably being that of Johann Gottlieb Fichte who said in his 1800 work The Vocation of Man that "you could not remove a single grain of sand from its place without thereby ... changing something throughout all parts of the immeasurable whole".
My Notes
Oops, That’s Members’ Only!
Fortunately, it only costs US$5/month to Join ModelThinkers and access everything so that you can rapidly discover, learn, and apply the world’s most powerful ideas.
ModelThinkers membership at a glance:
“Yeah, we hate pop ups too. But we wanted to let you know that, with ModelThinkers, we’re making it easier for you to adapt, innovate and create value. We hope you’ll join us and the growing community of ModelThinkers today.”
You Might Also Like:
- Actionable summaries of the world's most powerful ideas.
Subscribe now and download this practical guide to transform your thinking, plus recieve one short, powerful and actionable idea in your inbox each month.