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"Day 2 is stasis, followed by irrelevance, followed by excruciating painful decline, followed by death. And that is why it is always Day 1 ... Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ita relinquet duas, de quibus etiam atque etiam consideret. Vidit Homerus probari fabulam non posse, si cantiunculis tantus irretitus vir teneretur; At quicum ioca seria, ut dicitur, quicum arcana, quicum occulta omnia? Quae qui non vident, nihil umquam magnum ac cognitione dignum amaverunt. Ita enim vivunt quidam, ut eorum vita refellatur oratio. Ergo illi intellegunt quid Epicurus dicat, ego non intellego? Quod iam a me expectare noli. Quicquid porro animo cernimus, id omne oritur a sensibus; Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Hoc positum in Phaedro a Platone probavit Epicurus sensitque in omni disputatione id fieri oportere. Semovenda est igitur voluptas, non solum ut recta sequamini, sed etiam ut loqui deceat frugaliter. Rationis enim perfectio est virtus; Bonum valitudo: miser morbus. Cui Tubuli nomen odio non est? Qua igitur re ab deo vincitur, si aeternitate non vincitur? Non laboro, inquit, de nomine. Quis, quaeso, illum negat et bonum virum et comem et humanum fuisse? Hoc dixerit potius Ennius: Nimium boni est, cui nihil est mali. Quid sequatur, quid repugnet, vident. Age nunc isti doceant, vel tu potius quis enim ista melius?
- Choose a bias to action with reversible decisions.
Ask ‘what are the consequences of this de ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Duarum enim vitarum nobis erunt instituta capienda. Nihil opus est exemplis hoc facere longius. Cetera illa adhibebat, quibus demptis negat se Epicurus intellegere quid sit bonum. Addidisti ad extremum etiam indoctum fuisse. Quamquam haec quidem praeposita recte et reiecta dicere licebit. Quis non odit sordidos, vanos, leves, futtiles? Octavio fuit, cum illam severitatem in eo filio adhibuit, quem in adoptionem D. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Si enim non fuit eorum iudicii, nihilo magis hoc non addito illud est iudicatum-. Habent enim et bene longam et satis litigiosam disputationem.
Quid ergo attinet dicere: Nihil haberem, quod reprehenderem, si finitas cupiditates haberent? An me, inquam, nisi te audire vellem, censes haec dicturum fuisse? Scientiam pollicentur, quam non erat mirum sapientiae cupido patria esse cariorem. Satisne vobis videor pro meo iure in vestris auribus commentatus? Ea, quae dialectici nunc tradunt et docent, nonne ab illis instituta sunt aut inventa sunt? Quid ergo attinet gloriose loqui, nisi constanter loquare? Tum Piso: Atqui, Cicero, inquit, ista studia, si ad imitandos summos viros spectant, ingeniosorum sunt; An ea, quae per vinitorem antea consequebatur, per se ipsa curabit? Recte, inquit, intellegis.
Nec vero alia sunt quaerenda contra Carneadeam illam sententiam. Nihil acciderat ei, quod nollet, nisi quod anulum, quo delectabatur, in mari abiecerat. Restatis igitur vos; Quae sequuntur igitur? Murenam te accusante defenderem. Nihil acciderat ei, quod nollet, nisi quod anulum, quo delectabatur, in mari abiecerat. Eadem fortitudinis ratio reperietur. Hi autem ponunt illi quidem prima naturae, sed ea seiungunt a finibus et a summa bonorum; Qui est in parvis malis.
Even reversible decisions have an Opportunity Cost. The time and effort invested in that choice and then possibly backtracking have a cost in relation to the option forgone.
At the same time, the examples provided by Bezos ‘using his gut’ and intuition are problematic when we consider behavioural economics, Fast and Slow Thinking, and unconscious bias.
It's true that experts have deep, often unconscious pattern recognition within their field of expertise so can often make reliable, fast, gut-based decisions. But it's also true that such gut reactions lack a rational consideration and are prone to be impacted on by countless heuristics, particularly in new and unfamiliar situations.
Greenlighting Amazon Prime.
Bezos has said that the decision to greenlight Amazon Prime was ultimately based on intuition because the data did not provide a clear way forward. He explains that this is a common challenge with a new, untested initiative.
Bezos said: “There wasn’t a single financially savvy person who supported the decision to launch Amazon Prime. Zero. Every spreadsheet showed that it was going to be a disaster. So that had to just be made with gut.”
“You collect as much data as you can. You immerse yourself in that data,” said Bezos, “but then make the decision with your heart.”
The high velocity decision model is a useful decision making framework for any individual or team wanting to increase their agility and work in a competitive environment.
Use the following examples of connected and complementary models to weave high velocity decisions into your broader latticework of mental models. Alternatively, discover your own connections by exploring the category list above.
Connected models:
- Agile methodology: sharing the ideas of having a bias to action and testing ideas.
- Lean startup and minimum viable product: again, embracing the idea of quickly testing assumptions rather than discussing them forever.
Complementary models:
- Second order thinking: even if it is reversible, will the decision have second order and beyond implications that are irreversible?
- Circle of competence: making fast decisions from your circle of competence.
- Pareto principle: when making a decision based on 70 to 90% of the information, consider whether it includes the critical information.
- Inversion: considering what will be the cost of making the wrong decision in assessing whether it is reversible and what’s at stake.
- Redundancy/ margin of safety: to better make decisions with minimal risk.
- Fast and slow thinking: and the traps of relying on fast thinking.
- Availability heuristic: one of many cognitive biases that might arise from fast decision making.
- Prototypes: supporting a low risk approach to a bias for action.
This approach was described by Jeff Bezos in his 2016 letter to stakeholders. Here's how it starts:
“'Jeff, what does Day 2 look like?'
"That’s a question I just got at our most recent all-hands meeting. I’ve been reminding people that it’s Day 1 for a couple of decades. I work in an Amazon building named Day 1, and when I moved buildings, I took the name with me. I spend time thinking about this topic.
"'Day 2 is stasis. Followed by irrelevance. Followed by excruciating, painful decline. Followed by death. And that is why it is always Day 1.'
"To be sure, this kind of decline would happen in extreme slow motion. An established company might harvest Day 2 for decades, but the final result would still come.
"I’m interested in the question, how do you fend off Day 2? What are the techniques and tactics? How do you keep the vitality of Day 1, even inside a large organization?
"Such a question can’t have a simple answer. There will be many elements, multiple paths, and many traps. I don’t know the whole answer, but I may know bits of it. Here’s a starter pack of essentials for Day 1 defense: customer obsession, a skeptical view of proxies, the eager adoption of external trends, and high-velocity decision making."
The essence of the following 'starter pack' has been summarised into the High-Velocity Decisions model that you've been exploring.
My Notes
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1422 days ago arun , CoFounder ModelThinkers & keynote speakerI was very proud that we managed to dig up this model. It's not widely talked about elsewhere, though there are many references about Bezos considering irreversible / reversible decisions, there aren't many sources that capture the 4 elements from the original shareholder letter. We really found the four elements in combination very powerful for any agile organistion.
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